~/gunnerhowe

Gunner Levi Howe

Classical mathematics, applied to modern machine learning — pre-registered, byte-verified, and run on a single GPU.

15 public preprints5 on arXiv1 consumer GPU100% pre-registered

I take well-established objects from classical mathematics — the Kac–Rice formula, Ornstein’s d̄-distance, Doob’s h-transform, Heckman’s selection model — and instantiate them as practical tools and diagnostics for modern machine learning.

All of it runs on a single RTX 3080 in a home workstation. The constraint is deliberate: it forces questions sharp enough to be answered with careful experimental design rather than scale.

  • 01Pre-registered. Every project commits its predictions and kill conditions to git before any result exists.
  • 02Byte-verified. Every number in every paper regenerates from committed run artifacts — checked byte-for-byte, never hand-typed.
  • 03Honest negatives. When a kill condition fires, the negative result ships as the paper. Roughly a third of my published work reports one.

Six threads, one discipline

Level Crossings & Stochastic Geometry

The Kac–Rice formula, Minkowski functionals, and Rice's formula, made differentiable — mesh-free losses, sparsity budgets, and topology control for neural fields, PINNs, and event-driven networks.

Learning Dynamics & Emergence

What controls when capabilities appear? Causal experiments on the grokking delay, representational priors, critical windows, and state tracking in linear RNNs.

Models as Dynamical Systems

Ergodic-theoretic tools — Ornstein's d̄-distance, transfer-operator spectra, point-process likelihoods — for evaluating surrogates of chaotic systems and auditing latent reasoning.

Selection Bias & Uncertainty

Econometric selection models (Heckman 1979) brought to deep learning: calibrated uncertainty under selection on unobservables, and survivor bias in AutoML.

Continual Learning & Neuromorphic Hardware

Doob-conditioned consolidation that turns analog device noise into a memory resource — validated on real BrainScaleS-2 neuromorphic silicon.

Sequence Models & Representation

Positional information relative to learned semantic anchors, and what linear RNNs actually compute underneath their parameterization.

Recent preprints

All 15 publications →

Structure-Specific Representational Priors Causally Control the Grokking Delay

Controlled experiments showing the grokking delay is causally the time to form task-structured representations. Injecting the right structure through a contrastive representational prior collapses the delay — up to 22× faster generalization — while structure-agnostic interventions do not.

Same Output, Different Process: Ornstein's d̄-Distance as a Computational-Equivalence Metric for Model Diffing

When are two neural networks the same computation? A process-level equivalence metric from ergodic theory that separates what representation-geometry tools (CKA, SVCCA) and linearized-dynamics tools (DSA) conflate — such as a model versus its pruned, distilled, or noise-injected twin.

Intrinsic-Noise Consolidation: A Doob-Barrier-Conditioned Diffusion Turns Analog Device Noise into a Continual-Learning Resource

Casts per-synapse memory consolidation as a Doob h-transform: condition each weight's stochastic dynamics on never crossing a memory barrier, and intrinsic device noise becomes a consolidation resource instead of an accuracy tax. Confirmed on real BrainScaleS-2 analog neuromorphic hardware, with +15.6 points retention.

arXiv:2607.06924doi:10.5281/zenodo.21247000validated on neuromorphic silicon

Heckman-Corrected Epistemic Uncertainty: Selection on Unobservables Defeats Importance Weighting

Training data is routinely collected by a selection process the model never sees — loans observed only when granted, outcomes only when a test was ordered. When selection acts on unobservables, importance weighting and covariate-shift corrections fail; adapting Heckman's econometric selection model to deep networks restores calibrated uncertainty.

Level-Crossing Density as a Mesh-Free High-Frequency Auxiliary Loss for Implicit Neural Representations

Coordinate-MLP neural fields exhibit spectral bias: low frequencies fit quickly, high frequencies slowly or never. The Kac–Rice level-crossing density gives a mesh-free, FFT-free auxiliary loss that acts directly on scattered data in the spatial domain — where frequency-domain remedies require grids.

Ornstein's d̄-Distance as a Dynamical-Fidelity Metric for Surrogate Models of Chaotic Systems

Two chaotic systems can share an invariant measure yet compute different dynamics — a failure Wasserstein-style evaluation cannot see. Ornstein's d̄-distance from ergodic isomorphism theory catches it, validated on Lorenz-63 and Kuramoto–Sivashinsky surrogates.

Working & submitted

The Automaton Underneath: The Additive Input Pathway Is a Parasitic Attractor for State Tracking in Householder Linear RNNs

Submitted to arXiv · code public

A single architectural term — the additive input injection — is the causal culprit behind why expressive linear RNNs fail to length-generalize on hard state tracking. Delete it and the same architecture learns the exact automaton, generalizing perfectly at 16× training length (S5 accuracy 0.20 → 1.00). Zeroing the term at inference restores exact generalization: the model had learned the automaton underneath all along. 202 pre-registered runs; every number regenerates byte-for-byte.

github.com/gunnerhowe/automaton-underneath

Capability Emergence Can Be Forecast: Per-Seed, In Advance, With Calibrated Intervals

In preparation

The capstone of the grokking program: forecasting when a capability will emerge — per seed, before it happens, with calibrated intervals, certified false-alarm rates, and a blind pre-registered gate.

Closable or Open-Ended? Predicting Whether a Reward Hack Can Be Patched Away

Working paper

An AI-safety study formalizing whether a reward hack's exploit set is finite (closable by patching) or open-ended — and predicting which, directly from the task specification and verifier code.

Get in touch

Open to collaboration, review, and conversations about any of the work above — especially replication attempts and adversarial reads. The fastest way to reach me is email.